In Africa, the elephants are stressed. On the steppes of Mongolia, nomadic herders are watching their animals die. And deep in the North Atlantic, the currents that help regulate the earth’s climate are on the cusp of collapse.
The common thread to these far-flung and seemingly disparate global events is summed up in a recent report by the U.N.’s climate agency.
Last month entered the record books as the hottest January ever, the World Meteorological Organization reported, noting that the record global warming trends of 2023 continued into the new year. January was the eighth month in a row for record high temperatures. For the oceans, it was even worse: Sea surface temperatures have been at a record high for 10 straight months.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the European Union's climate agency Copernicus, says that 2024 opened “with another record-breaking month – not only is it the warmest January on record but we have also just experienced a 12-month period more than 1.5° Celsius above the pre-industrial reference period."
In the United States, the nation’s weather and climate agency NOAA warns of more rains and floods in some regions, more frequent and fiercer wildfires in others and a future of even more health-threatening smoke.
On the opposite side of the globe, the nomadic herders of Mongolia are dealing with a dzud, a severe weather phenomenon characterized by a combination of heavy snowfall followed by extremely cold temperatures. Cycles of thawing and cold freeze the snow and ground so solidly that livestock, integral to Mongolia’s culture and economy, are unable to get to grass and other pasture.
The herders are trying to adapt by using new technologies, such as solar energy to power freezers, charge their phones and stay connected to the internet, and motorbikes to chase after wayward sheep. But the U.N. resident coordinator for Mongolia, Tapan Mishra, calls the situation “critical” with “90% of the country facing high risk. The herding communities are struggling with inadequate feed and skyrocketing feed prices, leading to heightened vulnerabilities.”
As of this week, 1.5 million livestock have died from harsh winter conditions and 150,000 people who live in herder households urgently need food, medical supplies, firewood, coal, and cash assistance.
“I am particularly concerned that, of these, around 33,400 are women, men, girls, and boys who need urgent humanitarian support and [help to] ensure their continuity of access to critical services,” Mishra said on Tuesday.
In Africa, climate change is having a domino effect on elephant populations, with older elephants particularly stressed by the rising temperatures, shifting rain patterns and changes in vegetation. The loss and fragmentation of their habitats stem from a battle the animals seldom win, as their needs conflict with human demands for resources and space.
“Elephants in Africa are disappearing at an alarming rate, mainly due to habitat degradation and loss and human-wildlife conflicts,” say the authors of a new study in PLOS Sustainability and Transformation. “This situation is expected to worsen with the advent of climate change impacts,” such as prolonged drought.
Getting beyond 'outdated' ways of thinking
Chile, Colombia, Argentina and other South American nations have record wildfires fueled by a combustible blend: a warming climate, non-native trees and plants, and a strong El Niño event. Recent research published in the journal Nature suggests the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, with as much as half of the rainforest degrading into grasslands or weakened ecosystems.
“The region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system,” the study says.
Deep in the North Atlantic, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC – a system of currents that carry warm water that moderates the climate across Europe – appears to be at a crucial tipping point because of the influx of fresh water from Greenland’s melting glaciers.
The AMOC involves the movement of warm surface waters from the tropics northward, where they cool, sink, and then flow southward at deeper levels, forming a continuous loop. This process helps regulate Earth's climate by transporting heat from low to high latitudes, influencing weather patterns and climate systems.
René van Westen, a postdoctoral researcher in climate physics and an expert in high-resolution climate modeling and AMOC dynamics at Utrecht University, authored a study published in Science Advances that called the development a “global shift” that could disrupt the Earth’s climate. Should AMOC fail, sea levels would rise dramatically, Europe would grow much colder, and sea ice would extend south to the British Isles.
“The European climate is significantly different after the AMOC collapse,” the study says, “whereas for other regions only specific months undergo significant changes.” For example, in the Amazon, the dry season would become the wet season, and vice versa.
But solutions exist. "Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing," said Burgess, of Copernicus.
The Global Tipping Points Report, launched at the U.N. climate summit held in December, had a similar message: fossil fuel burning and emissions from agriculture and other land uses must be phased out.
"The 21st century has already witnessed extraordinary, abrupt and potentially irreversible changes in the world around us," says the report produced by a team of more than 200 researchers from 90 organizations in 26 countries. "When presented with such complexity and tumultuous change, we cannot continue looking at the world in an outdated way."
