At Munich summit, a focus on democracy versus autocracy

Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago inevitably overshadows the Munich Security Conference, which warns that Russian President Vladimir Putin "has made the clash of competing visions a brutal and deathly reality."

In its annual report on Monday, the world's self-described leading forum for debating international security policy noted Russia's full-scale assault on its neighbor has not only caused tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilian casualties, forced millions to flee their homes and inflicted massive war damages.

The war epitomizes the main fault line in global politics today, according to those surveyed for the Munich Security Index 2023: free elections vs. dictatorships. Though this week's three-day conference also will likely contend with the latest headlines of American fighter jets downing Chinese spy balloons in U.S. airspace.

"With its brutal and unprovoked invasion of a sovereign state, Moscow has also mounted an attack against the foundational principles of the post-World War II order," the 175-page report says.

"The attempt by an authoritarian power to eliminate a democracy as a sovereign nation-state is not the only sign, however, that autocratic revisionism is intensifying," it says.

"China’s tacit support for Russia’s war, its military posturing to assert its own sphere of influence in East Asia, and its comprehensive efforts to promote an autocratic alternative to the liberal, rules-based international order epitomize the broader autocratic challenge."

The three-summit is expected to draw German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and hundreds of other heads of state, ministers, government officials and other top security figures.

NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană told a panel discussion at the kickoff in Munich that Ukrainians are fighting for their lives – and how the rest of the world will be shaped after the war ends.

"It is about the order in Europe, of course, but it is also about the order in world affairs, around the world," he said.

Divisions within the West

Human rights has become "a major flashpoint in the growing systemic competition" between competing ideologies and governance systems, according to the report.

"China, supported by Russia, is at the forefront of broader authoritarian pushback against international human rights and the mechanisms built to protect them. The vision that Beijing is pursuing, Western observers worry, is nothing less than to create a world safe for autocracy," the report says.

"Among others, China seeks to ensure that collective rights, as defined and upheld by the state, take precedence over individual civil and political liberties," it says. "But disagreement on human rights is also evident within and among the democratic states of the world."

In March 2022, the U.N. General Assembly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a 141-5 vote and demanded that Russian forces immediately halt their deadly offensive on key Ukrainian cities and ports.

Only Russia along with Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria voted against the nonbinding resolution, which carries moral weight even if it cannot force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. But 35 nations, notably including China, India, Pakistan, South Africa and Vietnam, abstained from the vote during the first such emergency session of the 193-nation world body in more than a quarter-century.

When Harris attends the summit later this week at Munich's Hotel Bayerischer Hof, she will be accompanied by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, underscoring what hangs in the balance as the one-year anniversary of Russia's Feb. 24 invasion looms.

They are expected to provide an update on what the White House will do to help Ukraine in the coming weeks and months. Russian government officials were not invited to participate in the Munich summit.

U.S. President Joe Biden's administration hopes the several recent aid packages from the U.S. Congress and other Western backers of Ukraine will be enough to gain a significant military advantage, especially before any erosion of long-term support for the war might occur among American or European lawmakers.

China's top diplomat Wang Yi, who is director of the general office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, also plans to attend while also traveling to Russia and paying visits to several other European countries.

It was at the 2007 Munich summit that Putin delivered his now-famous speech in which he warned that "no one felt safe" in the American-led global order. His speech accusing the United States of creating a unipolar world that can have just "one master" has gained in significance since the outbreak of war in Ukraine.