BERN, Switzerland (AN) – Russia's war in Ukraine has undermined the effectiveness of international organizations, Swiss intelligence officials say.
The largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II has led to the "declining influence of international forums," Switzerland's Federal Intelligence Service said in its latest situation report on Monday.
"Russia has destroyed the rules-based order for peace in Europe. The effectiveness of international forums for maintaining peace and security, such as the U.N. or the OSCE, has continued to decline; there are no signs of a stable new world order," the FIS reported.
"The rivalry between the great powers is leaving its mark on the current period of transition," it said. "There is a shift toward a bipolar world order shaped by the systemic rivalry between the USA and China. For now, Russia’s war against Ukraine will remain the focal point in Switzerland’s security environment."
The United Nations' most powerful arm, the 15-nation Security Council, is supposed to help maintain international peace and security. It has often been deadlocked, however, largely due to the veto power held by its five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom.
The war in Ukraine also has disrupted the work of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, the region's leading forum for security and stability concerns.
Swiss intelligence points to a "continuing high espionage threat" particularly in Geneva's hub of multilateralism that includes the United Nations' European headquarters, dozens of other international organizations and hundreds of NGOs and diplomatic missions.
"It comes mainly from state actors and in particular from the intelligence services of Russia and China," according to the report.
In other European nations and in North America, large numbers of Russian spies working under diplomatic cover were expelled in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022, and to the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal, a U.K. citizen and former Russian spy, and his daughter Yulia, in March 2018, through the use of Novichok, a military-grade nerve agent developed by the former Soviet Union.
"In Switzerland, however, their numbers remain stable," the FIS reported. Russia has about 220 diplomatic and consular staff in Geneva and Bern, the report said, and "it is highly likely" that at least one-third of them work as Russian spies.
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In Europe, Switzerland is one of the nations with the highest numbers of Russian intelligence officers operating under diplomatic cover "in part due to its role as host to international organizations," the FIS said.
China has dozens of intelligence officers working under diplomatic or consular cover in Switzerland, it said, but there are "far fewer such officers than Russia, even though China employs more staff in its diplomatic and consular missions."
"It is highly likely that the Chinese intelligence services make greater use of non-diplomatic cover than the Russian services do," the FIS reported. "Their personnel mainly work under cover as scientists, journalists or business people."
Due to the war, the United States remains "central to the defense of Europe," it said, but if Donald Trump or another "isolationist candidate" were to recapture the White House next year that could spell trouble.
"A Republican administration from 2025 could reignite uncertainties about the U.S. engagement in Europe," it said.
Trump pulled the U.S. out of or threatened to withdraw from numerous international organizations and treaties, but U.S. President Joe Biden has moved to restore much of the U.S. involvement in multilateral diplomacy.
In other assessments, Swiss intelligence officials say:
- Switzerland election to a two-year seat on the U.N. Security Council this year and next raised the espionage threat against Swiss diplomats and decision makers.
- China and Russia want to transform the status quo of existing institutions, rules and norms.
- Regional powers such as Turkey, India and Saudi Arabia are seeking to expand their scope for action.
- In the Indo-Pacific region, Japan defines China as the greatest strategic challenge in its history.
- In Africa, the struggle for influence between Western countries and Russia and China is intensifying.
- Taiwan will continue to be the focal point of geostrategic tensions between China and the USA.
- It is highly unlikely that China will initiate an armed conflict with Taiwan in 2023.
