For a second year in a row, a science advocacy organization assessed that the world is just "90 seconds to midnight," the symbolic hour of apocalypse.
The Bullet of the Atomic Scientists' famous "Doomsday Clock" still has its metaphorical hands set at the closest point ever to midnight due to wars in Europe and the Middle East, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the spread of climate-related disasters and generative artificial intelligence.
"Ominous trends continue to point the world toward global catastrophe," the organization said in its assessment on Tuesday, emphasizing that the three largest nuclear powers – the United States, Russia and China – can cooperatively do something about it by reducing their nuclear arms spending and re-fortifying the world’s arms control architecture.
Though the total number of nuclear warheads has fallen worldwide, the amount of operational nuclear weapons has started to rise.
"Leaders and citizens around the world should take this statement as a stark warning and respond urgently, as if today were the most dangerous moment in modern history," it said. "Because it may well be."
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project.
Two years later, it launched the annual metaphorical clock using the imagery of the apocalypse and the contemporary idiom of a countdown to zero to convey threats to humanity and the planet.
The organization's board of sponsors, including nine Nobel laureates, set the clock's hands based on how vulnerable they believe the world is to a global catastrophe caused by manmade technologies.
“Make no mistake: resetting the clock at 90 seconds to midnight is not an indication that the world is stable. Quite the opposite," said Rachel Bronson, the organization's president and CEO.
"It’s urgent for governments and communities around the world to act. And the Bulletin remains hopeful — and inspired — in seeing the younger generations leading the charge.”
The global threats
Russia's nearly 2-year-old full-scale invasion of Ukraine shows no sign of abating, and "the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in that conflict remains a serious possibility," the organization warned.
Russian President Vladimir Putin decided in Feb. 2023 to suspend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. The next month he announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
In June, a Putin advisor urged Moscow to consider launching limited nuclear strikes on Western Europe as a way to end the war in Ukraine. Russia voted to withdraw ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, while the U.S. Senate kept refusing to even debate ratification.
Iran continues to enrich uranium to close to weapons grade while stonewalling the International Atomic Energy Agency on key issues, the Bulletin organization noted, and efforts to reinstate an Iran nuclear deal appear unlikely to succeed.
North Korea continues to build nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, it said, while Pakistan and India expand their nuclear capabilities without pause or restraint.
The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza since Hamas militants launched a deadly surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 also has the potential to escalate into a wider regional conflict that could pose "unpredictable" threats, the organization said.
Last year was the hottest year on record as massive floods, wildfires, and other climate-related disasters affected millions of people around the world, it observed, and the rapid adoption of generative AI "could magnify disinformation and corrupt the global information environment making it harder to solve the larger existential challenges."
“As though on the Titanic, leaders are steering the world toward catastrophe – more nuclear bombs, vast carbon emissions, dangerous pathogens, and artificial intelligence," said the organization's governing board chair, Jerry Brown, the former California governor.
"Only the big powers like China, America, and Russia can pull us back," he said. "Despite deep antagonisms, they must cooperate or we are doomed.”
