WASHINGTON (AN) — Energy experts say we’re moving into an “Age of Electricity” – with renewable sources expected to meet almost half of all demand by the end of the decade – but there’s scant evidence the transition will lower the heat any time soon on our warming planet.
Powering the needs of artificial intelligence, digital data centers, electric vehicles and air conditioning, electricity consumption is growing faster than expected, every year adding the equivalent of Japan’s total demand to global use, the International Energy Agency reported on Wednesday.
Demand for fossil fuel burning is expected to peak by the end of the decade with governments and the international economy moving to clean, affordable renewable energy, such as wind and solar. Coal, oil and natural gas, the Paris-based organizations said in its World Energy Outlook 2024, are likely to become more abundant and cheaper.
“In the second half of this decade, the prospect of more ample – or even surplus – supplies of oil and natural gas, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve, would move us into a very different energy world from the one we have experienced in recent years during the global energy crisis,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
Transition to clean energy
Cheaper fossil fuels would give government budgets “breathing space” and let policymakers focus on stepping up investment in renewables while canceling costly, inefficient subsidies to the fossil-fuel industry, Birol says.
By 2030 clean energy sources are expected to generate more than half of global electricity. As fossil fuel demand slows, low-emission technologies, especially solar and batteries, will increase at an unprecedented pace.
“In previous World Energy Outlooks, the IEA made it clear that the future of the global energy system is electric,” said Birol. “In energy history, we’ve witnessed the Age of Coal and the Age of Oil, and we’re now moving at speed into the Age of Electricity.”
But the use of renewables will remain uneven across markets and technologies and there’s little hope of fossil-fuel consumption significantly declining anytime soon. Even in this new electric-energy era, global temperatures will stay on course to rise 2.4° Celsius by the end of the century, well above the 2015 Paris Agreement’s 1.5° threshold.
Less reliance on oil also could bring so-called peace dividends. In conflict-affected countries, says the U.N. Development Program, climate adaptation and mitigation present opportunities to build peace and mend social fabric.
"In fragile contexts," it says, "capturing the security and peace 'co-benefits' of climate action – that is to say, the peace dividend – is critical to crowding in climate finance and promoting sustainable development."
Regional conflicts, such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, have shown how quickly energy dependencies can turn into vulnerabilities, and there's a high chance of more such disruptions, according to IEA.
National and regional elections in countries that account for half of global energy demand are taking place this year. In the United States, for example, it's a tossup race between Donald Trump, who calls climate change a “hoax” and vows to boost fossil fuels production, and Kamala Harris, who calls climate change an existential threat and the Paris Agreement a crucial pact to protect “our children’s future.″
The China effect
Virtually every energy story is a China story. From investments and fossil fuel demand to power consumption, renewable energy deployment, the expansion of electric vehicle markets, and clean technology manufacturing, China's influence is seen across the energy landscape. Within 10 years, Birol says, China’s solar power generation alone could “exceed the total electricity demand of the United States today.”
If clean energy growth is to be sustained, significantly more investment is essential. For every dollar now spent on renewable power, IEA says, only 60 cents go toward supporting infrastructure. Secure decarbonization requires spending more on grids and storage to keep up with pace of generation. Upgrading the resilience and digital security of power systems is critical as they face increased risks from extreme weather events.
In developing economies, the high cost of financing adds another barrier, and the lack of access remains the most fundamental inequity in today’s energy system. Some 750 million people, predominantly in Africa, are still without electricity, and more than 2 billion lack clean cooking fuels.
One target of the U.N.'s 17 Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 aims for universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services, including electricity. The emphasis is on extending electricity access to underserved areas, particularly in developing countries and rural communities where access remains limited.
An autonomous intergovernmental organization established in response to the 1973 oil crisis, IEA plans to host a global conference on energy and AI in December and a summit on energy security next year.
