German opposition leader Friedrich Merz declared victory and the far-right Alternative for Germany party nearly doubled its support in a national election, creating a fractured political landscape and uncertain odds for strengthening Europe at a perilous time.
Merz’s center-right conservatives had 28.5% of the vote while the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, had 20.7%, its best showing yet, according to projections on Sunday evening by German consultant infratest dimap for ARD and ZDF public television.
Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat with his center-left Social Democrats in third place with 16.5% of the latest projections, its weakest showing historically. His three-party ruling coalition between his party, the center-left Greens and the center-right Free Democratic Party collapsed due to a no confidence vote in Parliament in November.
With voter turnout at 84%, the highest since German reunification in 1990, the snap election that was called due to the collapse of Scholz's unpopular coalition is likely to be a defining one for both Germany and Europe.
The number of parties that get into parliament will determine whether Merz forms a coalition with Scholz’s Social Democrats or needs another party as well. Coalition talks could take weeks before Merz is chancellor. "The most important thing is to re-establish a viable government in Germany as quickly as possible," he said. "I know that it will not be easy.”
Shouldering more responsibility among organizations
Merz plans to push for tougher migration measures, significantly boost Germany's defense spending and scale up investment in research and technology.
The coalition Merz forms will greatly influence his ability to govern the country or to strengthen the European Union and NATO while U.S. President Donald Trump pivots toward Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s future – and, by extension, Europe’s security – is on the line.
Dominic Schwickert, managing director of The Progressive Center, a Berlin-based think tank, said Germany and other major donors will need to "partially compensate" for Trump's retreat from international organizations like the World Health Organization and U.N. refugee agency so they can stay operational.
"This also applies to taking on greater financial responsibility within NATO," he told Arete News. "There is no doubt that Germany will have to shoulder a significant share of the defense burden in Eastern Europe."
In 2023, for example, Germany's $463 million contribution made it the second-largest government donor to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, or UNHCR.
Standing for 'a rules-based international order'
The election results reflect a rise in tensions from a sharp increase in the number of asylum seekers in the country and growing popularity of right-wing populist movements. Often driven by populist AfD rhetoric, migration was an unavoidable issue during the election campaign.
The government recently tightened deportation laws and introduced temporary border controls to reduce "irregular migration," negating the E.U. principle of free internal movement. Human Rights Watch said mainstream political parties also sometimes indulged in far-right, racist and anti-migration narratives.
Contributing to AfD's increased voter share was a rise in poverty and inequality and eroded trust in institutions and democracy. Dunja Mijatović, the Council of Europe’s commissioner for human rights, said Germany inaction at combating poverty and houselessness led to a rise in social and economic inequality.
More than 21% of the population, or 17.7 million people, were at risk of poverty and social exclusion in 2023, according to Germany's Federal Statistical Office. Only 36% of German citizens reported high or moderately high trust in the federal government, lower even than the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's 39% average.
For weeks leading up to the election, thousands of people rallied against the rise of right-wing extremism. Schwickert called on the new German government to contribute to restoring the global standing of liberal democracy from day one.
"First and foremost," he said, "Germany must abandon its traditional reluctance and clearly define and advocate for both German and European interests in matters of military security, economic development, and the preservation of a rules-based international order alongside strong liberal democracies."
