While the Earth grows hotter and the devastation of global climate change becomes everyday news, the IEA is out with new reports that offer a glimmer of hope – after a peak of several more years in coal and other fossil fuel use.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency reported on Friday that global coal consumption is set to reach an all-time high in 2022 amid the war in Ukraine and rising demand in Europe and India, and will likely remain at similar levels for a few years "in the absence of stronger efforts to accelerate the transition to clean energy."
Global coal use is expected to rise by 1.2% in 2022, exceeding 8 billion tonnes in a single year for the first time, and to remain at that level through 2025 as declines in mature markets are offset by continued robust demand in emerging Asian economies.
"This means coal will continue to be the global energy system’s largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions by far," it said, noting that China, the world’s biggest coal user, increased its demand due to a heat wave and drought.
China, India and Indonesia, the biggest coal producers, are expected to hit production records in 2022, but a lack of enthusiasm about coal's long-term prospects translates into no sign of surging investment in export-driven coal projects. Developing Asian nations are set to increase coal use along with renewables as coal demand falls among more advanced economies.
In the long-term, there's a silver lining. The global energy crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine has motivated some countries to ramp up solar and wind power production as an alternative to expensive imported fossil fuels, whose prices have risen dramatically.
“The world is close to a peak in fossil fuel use, with coal set to be the first to decline, but we are not there yet,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA’s director of energy markets and security.
“Coal demand is stubborn and will likely reach an all-time high this year, pushing up global emissions," he said. "At the same time, there are many signs that today’s crisis is accelerating the deployment of renewables, energy efficiency and heat pumps – and this will moderate coal demand in the coming years. Government policies will be key to ensuring a secure and sustainable path forward.”
IEA reported earlier this month it sees a sharp acceleration in installations of renewable power and that total capacity growth worldwide will nearly double in the next five years. At that rate, solar and wind generated power will overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation.
Will renewables help mitigate warming?
The change, IEA researchers say optimistically, may help keep alive the possibility of sharply reducing greenhouse gases and limiting global warming to 1.5° Celsius in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
"Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase of even faster growth as countries seek to capitalize on their energy security benefits," said Fatih Birol, IEA's executive director.
"The world," Birol said, "is set to add as much renewable power in the next five years as it did in the previous 20 years."
The invasion of Ukraine proved to be a decisive moment in the renewable energy industry, with businesses and governments seeking reliable energy alternatives that are not dependent of the whims, retaliations and ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Driven by climate concerns and energy security, the amount of renewable power capacity added in Europe in the years from 2022 to 2027 is forecast by the IEA to be twice as high as in the previous five-year period.
Renewables increase, but India committed to coal
Outside Europe, the IEA cites policy and regulatory changes in China, India and the United States in its upward revision of renewable power growth.
Still, those three nations continue to burn coal and to pour tons of carbon dioxide and methane pollution into an atmosphere that appears to be reaching its limit.
India, which has experienced some of the most severe effects of man-made climate change, has grand solar ambitions, but remains committed to coal to power its booming economy and provide electricity to its people. The government plans to auction scores of permits for new coal mines and, for the foreseeable future, officials say there will be no large-scale move away from coal.
"For India, coal, being an affordable source of energy, holds prime importance for meeting its energy needs being fueled by rising economy," Pralhad Joshi, India's coal and mine minister, told a parliamentary panel last month.
The IEA said large-scale solar and wind-powered facilities are the most cost-effective options to generate electric power in many countries and solar capacity alone is expected to triple over the next five years.
The agency sees an acceleration in solar panel installations on residential and commercial rooftops, and says global wind power capacity will nearly double during the forecast period, with offshore projects accounting for about a fifth of the growth. Together, wind and solar will account for more than 90% of the renewable power capacity that is added over the next five years.
Still, people in developing nations who want more renewables face the usual daunting issues: corrupt and inept governments, inadequate or non-existent infrastructure, lack of technical skills and no access to affordable financing.
