NATO and Poland conclude missile strike on Polish farmland that killed 2 was not a Russian attack

NATO and its member nation Poland said they determined that a missile that landed in Polish farmland and killed two people appeared to be unintentional, likely a launch from neighboring Ukraine's missile defenses against Russia.

The announcement came after NATO ambassadors met on Wednesday to address the explosion by Poland's eastern border with Ukraine. NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, briefed the meeting while Poland's NATO Ambassador Tomasz Szatkowski, updated Allies on the incident.

"Since the start of Russia's illegal war in Ukraine, NATO has increased vigilance across our eastern flank," said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. "We have no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack and we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO."

Stoltenberg said NATO's preliminary analysis suggests the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks.

"But let me be clear: this is not Ukraine's fault," he added. "Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine."

Poland invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which required an investigation. Polish President Andrzej Duda said he, too, concluded it is "highly probable" that one of Ukraine’s air defense unfortunately fell on Polish territory after the Russian side launched at least 100 missiles on Ukraine.

"Virtually the whole territory of Ukraine was shelled, and in particular the border areas, namely the Lviv region and the Volhynian region, also came under fire. Cities in this part of Ukraine – practically all major urban centers – were rained down by Russian missiles yesterday," said Duda. "Ukraine defended itself – obviously and understandably – by also launching missiles aimed at shooting down the Russian ones."

"Thus, we witnessed a very serious clash caused by the Russian side, as was the whole conflict," Poland's president said. "There is none, absolutely no indication that this was an intentional attack on Poland. The incident at hand – that is, that a missile fell on our territory – was not an intentional act. It was not a missile that was targeted, aimed at Poland. Therefore, in essence, it was not an attack on Poland."

Ukraine wants more investigation

If the missile had been a deliberate attack, that could have triggered Article 5 of the NATO Treaty which would call for a collective defense of Poland – causing a wider conflagration to Russia's war in Ukraine. Stoltenberg said NATO "stands united and we will always do what is necessary to protect and defend all Allies."

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected the assertion the two people killed on Polish farmland resulted from an errant Ukrainian air defense missile. He said it was one of Russia's rockets that was part of a massive bombardment on Ukraine to damage its power grid.

"I have no reason to doubt the evening report by the Commander of the Air Force [Colonel General Mykola Oleschuk] delivered to me personally as well as to the Commander-in-Chief [of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Fedorovych] Zaluzhnyi. I have no doubt that it was not our rocket and not our rocket strike," Zelenskyy told reporters.

The incident remains a point of contention, with Zelenskyy calling for more investigation. He said Ukrainian officials should be able to participate in it and have access to the farmland in Poland. He also did not rule out apologizing "if, God forbid" some part of a Ukrainian missile was the cause of the two people's death.

"We are honest people after all. But first there needs to be a probe, access," he said.