The new U.N. Emissions Gap report shows business as usual puts the world on pace to reach 3° Celsius of warming since pre-industrial times – double the 2015 Paris Agreement's preferred threshold.
The good news is that the technology exists to prevent this, the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP, reported on Thursday, but even if nations uphold all of their promises the warming will still rise to 2.6° C.
The next round of nations' climate pledges next year "must deliver a quantum leap in ambition in tandem with accelerated mitigation action in this decade," the report warns. On the bright side, it says, "technical solutions are largely available" when it comes to power generation, passenger transport and some other sectors."
The report is timed for release just ahead of the U.N.'s annual climate summits toward the end of the year. It examines the "nationally determined contributions," or NDCs, that are at the heart of the Paris climate treaty's long-term goals.
“We’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time,” U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said of the report. COP29 will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan next month.
Staying out of the climate ICU
The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim, says UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
To get on a least-cost pathway for the Paris treaty's preferred threshold of 1.5°, emissions must fall 42% by 2030, compared with 2019 levels, she says. To stick to 2°, emissions must fall 28% by 2030. By 2035, emissions must fall 57% for the 1.5° target, and 37% for 2°.
"Climate crunch time is here. Nations must accelerate action now, show a massive increase in ambition in the new pledges and then deliver urgently with policies and implementation," Andersen wrote the report's preface.
"If they do not, the Paris Agreement target of holding global warming to 1.5° will be dead within a few years," she says, "and 2° will take its place in the intensive care unit."
