The U.N. agency that oversees the global shipping industry reached a deal to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero "by or about 2050."
The International Maritime Organization's deal announced on Friday includes interim goals of slashing carbon pollution by 20-30% by 2030 and 70-80% by 2040. If accomplished, the goals would be significant because the industry accounts for 2.9% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Diesel still powers most of the world's 100,000 cargo ships.
Negotiators reached unanimous agreement at a weeklong meeting of the 175-nation London-based IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee. The U.N. defines net zero as making cuts to as close to zero as possible in emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other heat-trapping gases, and letting oceans, forests and other so-called heat sinks absorb the rest.
The new strategy, which depends on the scalability and use of alternative fuels such as green hydrogen and ammonia, "is a monumental development for IMO and opens a new chapter towards maritime decarbonization," IMO Secretary-General Kitack Lim said.
"At the same time," said Lim, a former Korean naval officer, administrator and diplomat, "it is not the end goal, it is in many ways a starting point for the work that needs to intensify even more over the years and decades ahead of us."
The IMO's new goals go well beyond a 2008 plan that targeted a 50% reduction by mid-century. Environmental advocates, however, said they had hoped that IMO, a United Nations agency that develops global standards for shipping and supports countries to implement those rules, might be still more ambitious.
The Brussels-based Clean Shipping Coalition said civil society groups were "deeply concerned" by the deal, which amounted to a "failure to firm align global shipping with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5° Celsius temperature warming limit."
While the IMO-brokered deal brings shipping closer to fulfilling the Paris treaty's obligations, largely due to pressure from low-lying Pacific Island nations, the coalition said the deal failed to agree on absolute emission reduction targets and instead identified more nebulous "indicative checkpoints" for 2030 and 2040.
“There is no excuse for this wish and a prayer agreement. They knew what the science required and that a 50% cut in emissions by 2030 was both possible and affordable," said John Maggs, the coalition's president. "We are still a long way from the IMO treating the climate crisis with the urgency that it deserves and that the public demands.”
A credibility gap in net zero goals
Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5° in line with the legal obligations of the U.N.-brokered Paris treaty requires immediate transformation of all energy systems, according to the International Energy Agency, including an end to all new coal, oil and gas projects and no new fossil fuel-burning cars sold after 2035.
The upper limit for the treaty is 2° of warming, and the World Meteorological Organization says there's a 66% likelihood the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will breach the 1.5° limit for at least a year.
Lim said the deal provides "a clear direction, a common vision, and ambitious targets to guide us to deliver what the world expects from us," but he acknowledged that IMO must "pay more attention to support developing countries" that will need assistance in reducing shipping emissions.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres had urged IMO-member nations to commit the shipping sector to net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest.
"And that includes ambitious science-based targets starting in 2030 – both on absolute emissions reductions and the use of clean fuels," said Guterres.
"The industry has seen some progress. But it must move much faster to get on track and drive investment and innovation," he said. "These must include all greenhouse gas emissions and cover the whole value chain. Such targets will provide the certainty that the industry and investors need."
The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC, which serves as a platform for U.N.-brokered global climate negotiations, has launched a new framework to boost accountability of non-government net zero pledges.
A recent study led by Imperial College London published in the journal Science found a serious credibility gap among governments. Researchers ranked 90% of countries with net zero targets as unlikely to be achieved.
Many of the net zero carbon-cutting goals adopted by businesses and governments to limit global warming to 1.5° lack credibility and oversight, according to a report last month.
The report, based on data about 4,079 entities from Net Zero Tracker, said most companies aren't tackling the biggest concerns, including all emissions from a company's entire supply chain, and no major oil, gas or coal producer countries or companies committed to phasing out fossil fuels.
