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Swiss vote marks return to a more conservative, less green mindset

Swiss right-wing populist and Socialist parties gained strength at the expense of Greens, reflecting increasingly conservative voter sentiment on issues like climate, health and migration.

A trade union float appears beside the Swiss Parliament building  Bern in June 2023
A trade union float appears beside the Swiss Parliament building at Bern in June 2023 as more than 300,000 women nationwide demanded “respect, more pay and more time!” (AN/J. Heilprin) 

BERN, Switzerland (AN) — As Switzerland campaigns to bolsters its global relevance as a multilateral hub, its domestic politics point another way.

Switzerland prides itself as a hub for international organizations mainly clustered around the U.N.'s European headquarters in Geneva. In May, Switzerland used its first-ever presidency of the United Nations Security Council to call for stronger confidence-building approaches and instruments for sustainable peace.

On Sunday, Swiss right-wing populist and Socialist parties gained strength at the expense of left-wing Greens in national balloting, reflecting increasingly conservative and inward-looking voter sentiment on issues like climate, health and migration.

Final vote tallies for the parliamentary elections, held once every four years, showed the anti-immigrant, right-wing populist Swiss People's Party drew 27.9% of the vote, up from its previous 25.8% in 2019 but still short of the 29.4% that it commanded in 2015 when Europe's refugee crisis took center stage.

By contrast, the Greens dropped to 9.8% of the vote in the National Council, a significant stumble from the 13% the party had the last time around as student-led climate protests reverberated in Switzerland and abroad.

Its support, however, held well above the 7.1% it received in 2015, according to federal election results. In an unprecendented incident, Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office on Wednesday corrected its previous results due to what it called "an error in the calculation of the aggregated party vote shares at national level."

The corrected results from three of the nation's 26 cantons, or states, did not change the distribution of seats in Swiss parliament or dramatically alter the new political landscape. Swiss Interior Minister Alain Berset ordered an administrative enquiry into how the first such counting error in the history of Swiss democracy occurred.

Michael Hermann, managing director of the Sotomo Institute, a Swiss political research firm, told the Zürich-based national daily newspaper Tages-Anzeiger after the first results were released that the nation's shift to the right is different this time. "The atmosphere in the country is completely different than it was four years ago," he said in an interview.

"Back then we had a progressive mood, the major crises – the pandemic, the war in Ukraine – were still ahead of us. We were also doing well economically," Hermann said. "The country was open to change. The migration issue, which had characterized every election since the 1990s, took a moment's pause. But such progressive moments of departure are fleeting. Now the fear of change, of the stranger, of economic difficulties dominates again."

All 200 seats in the lower house known as the National Council and 44 of the 46 seats in the upper chamber, or Council of States, were up for grabs. The voting determines the makeup of parliament and how Swiss lawmakers over the next four years will navigate as a small but wealthy nation outside the European Union.

Based on the votes, seats are divvied among parties. The Swiss People's Party, by far the biggest, also shares representation on a seven-minister governing council with the next three biggest parties: the left-wing Socialist Democrats, centrist Center Alliance and center-right Radical-Liberals. The seven ministers, collectively the Federal Council, each oversee a government agency and take 1-year turns as president.

Swiss citizens' right to vote in local, cantonal and federal elections, and in frequent referendums and ballot initiatives is a source of pride among the nation's 9 million inhabitants, including 2.9 million foreigners.

A record number of 5,900 candidates, 41% of them women, sought four-year terms in parliament. That’s up from 4,600, with 40% women, in 2019.

Yet voter turnout in this year's quadrennial federal elections was 46.6%, which is typical for Switzerland and slightly up from 45.1% four years ago. Fewer than half of all registered Swiss voters cast their ballots on average.

A Swiss People's Party ad this year
A Swiss People's Party ad this year

A strong job market and refugees from Ukraine

The Swiss parliament first gathered in 1848 and the Swiss Constitution, establishing the Swiss federal state with powers divided between the Confederation, cantons and communities, was heavily influenced by the U.S. Constitution's system of checks and balances and French Revolution ideals.

In the runup to the 2023 elections, the well-funded Swiss People's Party blanketed the nation with ads appealing to voters to back a proposed anti-immigration initiative requiring that the Swiss population not exceed 10 million before 2050. Under the Swiss system a people's initiative, like this one launched in July, can be put to a vote if at least 100,000 signatures are collected within 18 months.

Once the population crosses the 9.5 million threshold, the initiative would force the government to scale back on granting asylum and family reunification requests. International accords such as the E.U.'s free movement of persons and a U.N. pact on migration also might have to be reconsidered.

The party's racist, xenophobic, anti-immigration ads often feature a black emblem or figure – in past years it's been an animal – encroaching on the lives of white figures. In 2017, Switzerland's highest court ruled that the nation's largest political party went too far by violating anti-racism laws in a controversial campaign ad.

During this year's elections, citizens juggled concerns over the fast rate of climate change, including Switzerland's melting glaciers, with the rising costs of living, including obligatory health insurance, and record levels of immigration.

Some 190,500 people moved to Switzerland in 2022, a 15% year-on-year increase, while 120,400 people emigrated, causing a net immigration bump of 70,100.

Switzerland anticipates a record level of net immigration of between 85,000 and 100,000 people in 2023, according to the national center for migration and mobility studies at the University of Neuchâtel.

"This can be attributed to its dynamic labor market and the inclusion of refugees from Ukraine, the majority of whom will be recognized as part of the permanent resident population by the end of 2023," the center reported last week.

"At the same time," it observed, "many Swiss nationals have chosen to emigrate and leave the country, mitigating the potential impact of foreign immigration on the labor and housing markets."

Editor's Note: This story was updated with additional details and corrected to reflect the vote counting error announced on Oct. 25 by Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office. The voter share of the Swiss People’s Party, first reported at 28.6%, was 27.9%. Shares of the Center Alliance and Radical-Liberals also fell in the corrected tally. Other parties picked up votes, including the Socialist Democrats and the Greens, whose share, first reported at 9.4%, was 9.8%.

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